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Platform Ground truth models QCRA

Quantitative cost risk analysis

Know the range your cost could land in, not just one number.

QCRA runs a Monte Carlo cost simulation on your schedule’s activities and WBS, so you can set contingency with a confidence level behind it.

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See the technical detail
DC Echo QCRA results
10,000 iterations
P50 $51.6MP80 $54.9M$44M$52M$60M
BASE COST
$48.2M
P50
$51.6M
P80
$54.9M
P95
$58.3M

Why teams choose it

Three reasons it earns its place.

01

Contingency you can defend.

See the full range of likely outcomes, with P50, P80 and P95 costs for the project, every WBS and every costed activity.

P5 to P95
02

Estimate at the level you work.

Enter cost by activity, by WBS package or for the whole project. Direct costs are sampled, and sums roll up automatically.

Direct or sum
03

Same workflow as QSRA.

Templates, distributions, a risk register with mitigation, filters and imports that work exactly like schedule risk.

One way of working

Technical specification

Cost risk, modeled like schedule risk.

Method
Monte Carlo simulation of cost uncertainty and cost risk events
Iterations
1 to 10,000, default 10,000
Base cost
Direct on any activity, WBS level or the project, with sums rolling up the tree
Distributions
Single value, Triangle, Uniform or BetaPERT
Templates
Five uncertainty bands, Low to High, each renameable with its own values and distribution
Risk events
Cost Risk Register with threats, opportunities and mitigated values
Currency
One base currency across the table and results, no exchange rates applied
Results and export
Cost distribution and percentile outcomes at every level, exported to Excel with P5 to P95

Cost table

Cost lives where your estimate lives.

Enter a direct cost on an activity, a WBS package or the project. Rows below a costed level lock, and sums keep the whole tree adding up.

  • Direct and sum costs
  • Milestones excluded
  • Undo on every change
Cost table
WBS / ACTIVITY
TYPE
BASE COST
TEMPLATE
DIST.
DC Echo
SUM
$48.2M
Design
SUM
$6.4M
Design package F002
DIRECT
$2.1M
Medium
BetaPERT
Client review F003
DIRECT
$0.6M
Low
Triangle
Construction
DIRECT
$36.9M
Medium-High
BetaPERT
Commissioning
SUM
$4.9M

Uncertainty

Five bands, or your own values.

Apply a template in one click, or choose a distribution and type min, most likely and max values for any costed row.

  • Five templates
  • Renameable bands
  • Manual override
Cost uncertainty templates
Low
−2%
0%
+5%
Low-Medium
−5%
0%
+10%
Medium
−5%
0%
+15%
Medium-High
−10%
0%
+25%
High
−10%
+5%
+40%

Rename each band, set its min, most likely and max, and pick its distribution.

Cost risk

Model the events that move the money.

Add cost risk events with probability and impact, mark them as threats or opportunities, and add mitigated values to compare before and after.

  • Threats and opportunities
  • Mitigation
  • Excel import and export
Cost Risk Register
CR-01
Steel price escalation
Threat
35% → 15%
$0.8M to $2.4M
CR-02
Additional switchgear
Threat
20% → 10%
$0.5M to $1.2M
CR-03
Bulk procurement saving
Opportunity
40%
$0.3M to $0.9M
Probability shown pre → post mitigation.

Put it to work

QSRA deep dive
Risk and forecasting use case
All ground truth models

FAQ

Questions, answered.

Technical questions about QCRA.

Talk to our team

Like QSRA, but for cost. Monte Carlo simulation samples cost uncertainty and cost risk events on every directly costed row, across 1 to 10,000 iterations, 10,000 by default.

A direct cost is a value you enter on an activity, a WBS level or the project, and it’s what the simulation samples. A sum rolls up the direct costs below it, so results exist at every level.

Single value, Triangle, Uniform and BetaPERT, set by hand or from five renameable uncertainty templates.

One base currency of your choice across the cost table and results. Exchange rates aren’t applied.